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THE HFL CRIMSON CHRONICLE

Vol. 2  •  Issue 4  •  Week 4
On the Cover: Jahmyr Gibbs, HB, Denver Broncos

The only man who could take this record was the man who already held it. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 248 yards in Week 16 of 2027 and it stood as the best single afternoon any back in this league had ever had. On Sunday he carried sixteen times for 259 yards and two touchdowns, broke a 79-yarder, added three catches for 60, and beat his own mark by eleven yards on eleven fewer carries than most backs need to get halfway there. Denver ran for 299 yards as a team, moved to 4-0, and handed New Orleans its first loss. Gibbs now has 1,065 yards from scrimmage and eleven touchdowns through four weeks. The Chronicle put him on the cover of nothing last week and gave the space to a tight end. He has made that difficult to repeat.

Week 4 Scoreboard

Giants19Bears ★22
Cardinals4149ers45
Falcons31Chargers44
Bills27Dolphins31
Panthers38Raiders32
Browns19Ravens17
Cowboys35Steelers13
Texans21Bengals28
Rams14Buccaneers31
Vikings13Jaguars21
Patriots35Jets38
Saints21Broncos41
Eagles30Colts13
Seahawks24Chiefs44
Titans13Packers37
Commanders24Lions7
★ Game of the Week — Bears 22, Giants 19

Seven days after Patrick Mahomes completed 22 of 24 passes for a perfect rating, he threw four interceptions in Chicago and lost. The Chronicle would like the record to show that it picked the Giants, called this the most interesting kind of trap game, and then watched the trap close on exactly the schedule a trap is supposed to.

Chicago took the ball away four times and needed every one of them, because the Bears did not out-play New York by much of anything else. The Giants gained 301 yards to Chicago's 311. Cam Skattebo ran eleven times for 103 yards and a touchdown with a 45-yard long and caught nine more passes. Mahomes threw for 195. The difference was a defense that would not stop taking the ball: Andrew Mukuba, Glenn Steen and Rayshon Traylor each picked Mahomes off, and Oscar Mann took the fourth one 22 yards to the house.

Lorenzo Whitworth was not clean either — 19-of-30 for 244 with two touchdowns and two interceptions of his own — but he found Terrelle Dodson six times for 122 yards and a 51-yard score, and Ja'Quan Wofford for the other. Chicago converted four of nine on third down after going 1-for-8 at Lambeau, which is the single most encouraging number on the Bears' season sheet.

New York had its own defensive touchdown — Jaylon Johnson returned an interception 51 yards — and still lost, which is the kind of afternoon that tells you everything about the turnover column. Six giveaways between the two teams, two returned for scores, and a three-point margin. Cameron Dicker made both his field goals and missed an extra point, and in a game decided by three that is the sort of detail that follows a kicker around.

Chicago is 1-2-1 and has out-played its record in every game it has played. New York is 2-2 with the best point differential of any team at .500 in the league. Neither of these teams is what its record says. Only one of them got paid for it on Sunday.

Around the League

Broncos 41, Saints 21

Denver is 4-0 and Jahmyr Gibbs owns the record book. Sixteen carries, 259 yards, two touchdowns and a 79-yard run, plus three catches for 60 — the best rushing afternoon in league history, breaking the 248 he set himself in 2027. The Broncos ran for 299 as a team. Warren Davis was efficient rather than busy (10-of-17, 194, two scores) and Dont'e Thornton Jr. caught both of them on four catches for 100 including a 71-yarder. New Orleans loses its first: Lamar Jackson threw for 231 and two scores, Jayden Higgins went for 123 and a touchdown, and the Saints converted three of six fourth downs trying to keep pace. Quinnen Williams — a defensive tackle — intercepted a pass.

Eagles 30, Colts 13

See the feature, but the headline numbers deserve to be read twice: Philadelphia gained 140 total yards, threw for 19, and won by 17. Six takeaways did it. Tariq Woolen, Terrion Arnold, Carson Schwesinger and Abdul Carter all intercepted Jalen Milroe, Mekhi Wingo forced a fumble and returned it for a touchdown, and Chris Boswell kicked three field goals including a 50-yarder. Indianapolis actually moved the ball — Alec Pierce caught an 80-yard touchdown and rookie Luke Kyle went for 62 — but Milroe threw four picks and lost two fumbles, and Christian McCaffrey was held to three yards on ten carries.

49ers 45, Cardinals 41

The highest-scoring game of the week and the best offensive afternoon of Cam Ward's season: 22-of-29 for 368 yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions, a 156.9 rating. Brian Thomas Jr. caught thirteen of them for 197 yards and three scores. San Francisco turned seven red-zone trips into four touchdowns and is 4-0 with 173 points. Arizona was one score away all afternoon: rookie Jabari Howard ran ten times for 155 yards and two touchdowns with a 74-yard burst, Fred Warner returned a fumble for a score, and the Cardinals sacked Ward three times. Brock Purdy's two interceptions in a four-point loss are the whole difference.

Chiefs 44, Seahawks 24

Kansas City has found it. Derrick Henry carried twelve times for 175 yards and two touchdowns with an 86-yard run and broke five tackles, Hayden Andrews went 11-of-12 for 228 and three scores at a perfect 158.3, and backup Max Patterson added a fourth touchdown pass at the same rating. The Chiefs forced four turnovers, two of them by Damone Clark and one by Sauce Gardner. Seattle is 0-4 and has now been outscored by 87, but Louis Geyer caught eight for 115 and a score, and Tre Tucker threw his second touchdown pass of the season — the only wide receiver in the league with two.

Panthers 38, Raiders 32

Carolina ran for 263 yards and rookie Brandon Hart had 243 of them on twenty carries with two touchdowns and a 70-yard long — the second-biggest rushing day of the week and of any rookie's career here. Joe Burrow was clean and lethal (14-of-22, 203, three touchdowns, no picks) and Pat Bryant caught two of them. Las Vegas is 0-4 and played its best game: Jaxson Dart threw for 242 and two scores and ran for a third, Omarion Hampton broke an 87-yard touchdown run on the way to 119 yards, and Ja'Marr Chase and Trey McBride both found the end zone. The Raiders went 3-for-3 on fourth down and 1-for-7 on third, and that is the game.

Jets 38, Patriots 35

The first win of New York's season, and it came against a quarterback having one of the best afternoons of his career. Drake Maye went 27-of-36 for 361 yards and four touchdowns without an interception, New England turned four of five red-zone trips into touchdowns, and the Patriots lost by three. Riley Leonard threw only fourteen passes: eleven completions, 267 yards, two touchdowns, a perfect 158.3 rating, and a 73-yard strike to Jameson Williams, who caught three balls for 143. Nick Boatwright ran for 100 and two scores. Jake Elliott's 61-yard field goal was the longest kick of the week and did not matter.

Bengals 28, Texans 21

The strangest box score of the week outside Indianapolis. Cincinnati turned the ball over five times, watched its rookie quarterback throw two interceptions and lose two fumbles, and won anyway — because Houston's offense managed 48 passing yards. Seth Simmons came off the bench 7-of-8 for 90 and a touchdown, Christian Ross caught six for 128 and two scores, and third-string backs Tim Hardy and Marco Swinton ran for touchdowns of 78 and 61 yards' worth of work. BJ Ojulari had eight tackles, two sacks and a forced fumble. Houston's defense was magnificent — Milton Williams two forced fumbles, YaYa Diaby a sack and a strip, Tre'von Moehrig an interception and a fumble recovery, five takeaways in all — and the Texans still lost, because Bijan Robinson's 163 yards and two touchdowns were the entire offense.

Packers 37, Titans 13

Green Bay is 4-0 and plus-100, which is not a typographical error. The Packers have allowed 47 points in four games. Jayden Daniels threw thirteen passes, completed eleven, and produced 174 yards, three touchdowns and a perfect 158.3 rating; Trevor Etienne ran for 115 and a score; Maddux Trujillo went 3-for-3 with two from beyond 50 and a long of 59; and Mac Heath intercepted Dak Prescott twice. Green Bay went 0-for-5 on third down and won by 24, which tells you how little it needed the ball. Tennessee got 128 yards and a 77-yard touchdown out of DJ Moore and is 2-2.

Commanders 24, Lions 7

Washington is 4-0 and has allowed 52 points all season. This was the ugliest of the four and the most convincing: 234 total yards, three takeaways, no giveaways, and a Jalen Thompson 51-yard interception return for a touchdown. Anthony Richardson Sr. threw fifteen passes, completed eleven for 160 and a score, and has now thrown ten touchdown passes and zero interceptions this season. Tee Higgins caught a 51-yarder. Detroit is 2-2 and had its worst day of the year — C.J. Stroud was pulled after two interceptions and 84 yards, Kyle McCord was tidy in relief, and Ty Hamilton and Jamien Sherwood kept the score respectable long after the offense had stopped helping.

Cowboys 35, Steelers 13

Dallas converted eight of ten third downs — the best rate of the week — and Spencer Rattler threw for 290 and three touchdowns with a 72-yard strike to CeeDee Lamb. Jaleel McLaughlin ran for 66 and a score off the bench. The Cowboys are 3-1 and their quarterback has twelve touchdowns against two interceptions. Pittsburgh's defense took the ball away twice without a giveaway of its own — Devin Bush picked Rattler off, Logan Wilson recovered a fumble, Cam Jackson had half a sack and a strip — and Wan'Dale Robinson caught five for 91 and a touchdown. The Steelers have scored 60 points in four games.

Dolphins 31, Bills 27

Miami is 3-1 and finally won a shootout. Four touchdowns on five red-zone trips, 25 first downs, and a 75 percent third-down rate did it. Baker Mayfield was steady (21-of-30, 288, two scores), Isiah Pacheco ran for 97 and a touchdown, and rookie Carlos Wiggins added 83 yards from scrimmage and a score. Buffalo is 1-3 and cannot possibly be this bad: Josh Allen went 27-of-32 for 341 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, Amon-Ra St. Brown caught nine for 144 and two scores, and Trey Benson broke a 73-yard touchdown run. The Bills out-gained Miami, did not turn it over once, and lost. That is three losses now in games Buffalo statistically won.

Buccaneers 31, Rams 14

Tampa Bay's first win, and the defense delivered it. Jaire Alexander returned an interception 70 yards for a touchdown and added two breakups, Craig Woodson picked Trevor Lawrence off again, and the Buccaneers turned two takeaways and five red-zone trips into a comfortable afternoon on 218 total yards. Justin Herbert threw ten passes. Bucky Irving and Kaleb Johnson both ran for scores. Los Angeles falls to 1-2-1 and has now given the ball away nine times in four weeks — Jaylin Noel caught six for 76 and a touchdown and Tyler Warren got the other, but two more Lawrence interceptions and a 1-for-6 day on third down is not a formula.

Jaguars 21, Vikings 13

Jacksonville is 3-1 and did it on the ground for once: Travis Etienne Jr. carried eight times for 100 yards and a touchdown with a 73-yard burst, then caught nine passes for 49 and two more scores. Three touchdowns, 149 yards from scrimmage, and the Jaguars ran for 167 as a team. Bryce Young was ordinary after a perfect Week 3. Minnesota is 0-4 and this was its most competitive game: Jaleel Banks returned an interception 53 yards for a touchdown, Alim McNeill and Alex Highsmith both got sacks, Andre Szmyt made both his field goals including a 49-yarder, and Jordan Love did not throw a pick for the first time all season. The Vikings gained 185 yards. The defense is not the problem.

Chargers 44, Falcons 31

Los Angeles has won two straight and Shane Dressler is playing as well as anyone: 13-of-21 for 233 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, a 139.4 rating. Alec Westbrook ran twelve times for 161 and two scores with a 62-yard long and caught a third. The Chargers took the ball away three times without a giveaway — C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Quay Walker and Renardo Green all intercepted Jalen Hurts. Atlanta gained exactly as many yards as Los Angeles did, 416 apiece, and got 172 rushing yards and a 68-yard run out of Saquon Barkley plus 119 receiving from Jaylen Waddle. Three interceptions on seventeen attempts is what separated them.

Browns 19, Ravens 17

Cleveland is on the board. The Browns won the ugliest and most necessary game of their season on 238 total yards, two takeaways and no giveaways, with Shedeur Sanders playing carefully (14-of-25, 151, a touchdown, no picks), Ashton Jeanty running for 94 and a score, and Benjamin Morrison getting six tackles and an interception. Jordan Garay made two of three field goals and the last one held up. Baltimore is 0-4 and this is the loss that will sting: the Ravens turned both red-zone trips into touchdowns, ran for 98, and lost by two on a J.J. McCarthy interception and a Michael Pittman Jr. fumble. Quinshon Judkins keeps producing on a team that cannot get out of its own way.

The All-HFL Weekly Team

Week 4's honor roll, built straight from the box scores.

Cam Ward
QB, 49ers
22/29, 368 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT, 156.9 rating. The best passing afternoon of the season in the highest-scoring game of the week.
Jahmyr Gibbs
HB, Broncos
16 car, 259 yds, 2 TD (+3 rec, 60 yds). The single-game rushing record, taken from himself.
Brandon Hart
HB, Panthers
20 car, 243 yds, 2 TD (70-yd long). A rookie with the second-biggest rushing day in league history behind Sunday's other one.
Derrick Henry
HB, Chiefs
12 car, 175 yds, 2 TD (+1 rec TD), 5 broken tackles. 86 yards on one carry and Kansas City's season back on its feet.
Brian Thomas Jr.
WR, 49ers
13 rec, 197 yds, 3 TD. The most catches and the most receiving yards of the week, by a distance.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR, Bills
9 rec, 144 yds, 2 TD. Everything Buffalo could have asked for, in another loss.
Christian Ross
TE, Bengals
6 rec, 128 yds, 2 TD. The steady hand on an afternoon Cincinnati turned it over five times.
Mekhi Wingo
DT, Eagles
1 tackle, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, 1 recovery returned for a TD, 1 breakup. A 75-overall defensive tackle who out-scored his own offense's passing game.
Milton Williams
DT, Texans
5 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles. The centre of a five-takeaway afternoon that deserved a win.
BJ Ojulari
REDGE, Bengals
8 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 forced fumble. The most complete edge line of the week, and the reason Cincinnati survived itself.
Tariq Woolen
CB, Eagles
3 tackles, 1 INT (35 return yds), 3 breakups. One of four Philadelphia defenders to intercept Jalen Milroe.
Damone Clark
MIKE, Chiefs
6 tackles, 2 INT. Half of Kansas City's four-takeaway day.
Maddux Trujillo
K, Packers
3/3 FG (two from 50+, long 59), 4/4 XP. Perfect again, and now 8-for-8 on the season.

Milestone Watch

A quarter of the season is gone. The paces are still silly and one of them stopped being a pace on Sunday and became a record.

Record Book Watch

One record fell, and it fell to the man who set it.

Feature Story: Nineteen Passing Yards

Here is the entire Philadelphia passing game from Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis. Caleb Williams attempted four passes. He completed two. They went for nineteen yards, the longer of them thirteen. There were no touchdowns and no interceptions, because there was very nearly nothing at all. The Eagles finished with 140 total yards of offense, eight first downs, and a 25 percent third-down rate.

They won by seventeen.

This is not a story about an offense getting away with something. It is a story about a defense that decided the game was not going to require an offense. Philadelphia took the ball away six times. Tariq Woolen intercepted Jalen Milroe and added three pass breakups. Terrion Arnold intercepted him and returned it 48 yards. Carson Schwesinger intercepted him. Abdul Carter intercepted him and returned it 29. Bo Richter forced a fumble. And Mekhi Wingo, a 75-overall defensive tackle, sacked Milroe, forced the fumble, recovered it, returned it for a touchdown and broke up a pass, which is a stat line that reads like somebody entered it wrong.

Milroe finished 12-of-30 for 200 yards, one touchdown, four interceptions, two lost fumbles and a 34.7 rating. Indianapolis out-gained Philadelphia by nearly a hundred yards and had the ball inside the Eagles' twenty three times. It scored thirteen points. Alec Pierce caught an 80-yard touchdown and it did not change the shape of the afternoon at all, because the Colts followed it by giving the ball away again.

What makes this worth 900 words instead of a line in the notes column is what it says about a 2-2 Philadelphia team the Chronicle has spent three issues being polite about. The Eagles opened by beating Cleveland, lost to Dallas, lost to Washington, and have now won a game in which their quarterback threw four passes. Jonathan Taylor ran eighteen times for 98 yards and has 333 on the season. Chris Boswell is 6-for-7 and hit from 50. Walter Nolen has three sacks. This is a roster with a running game, a kicker and a secondary, and it has now proven it can win without asking the quarterback to do anything at all.

The worry, obviously, is that it had to. Caleb Williams has thrown for 205 yards, 244 yards, 205 yards and 19 yards in four starts. He has one touchdown pass in his last three games. Philadelphia has scored 94 points, fewer than any team with a winning record and fewer than nine teams below them in the standings. A defense can steal a Sunday. It cannot steal a January.

But the Chronicle has watched a lot of football in this league and has never seen 140 yards of offense beat anybody by seventeen points. Philadelphia gets Carolina next, and Carolina just ran for 263 yards. Somebody is about to find out whether Sunday was a blueprint or a magic trick.

Press Row & Transaction Wire

Press Row

Press Row is back, and it came back with a head coach answering a question this column asked him in print.

"We're trying a new strategy where we score enough points that defense becomes optional."

— Bobby Billings, Head Coach, Denver Broncos

The Chronicle spent nine hundred words in Issue 3 wondering aloud whether a Denver defense that had surrendered 83 points in three games could survive a January where the games get tighter and the field gets shorter. The Broncos' head coach has now responded, on the record, that he does not intend to find out.

And the receipts are largely on his side. Denver is 4-0. It has scored 151 points, second in the league. It has allowed 104, the most of any unbeaten team, and it did not sack Baker Mayfield once in Miami while he threw five touchdown passes — and it won that game 45-42 anyway. On Sunday the Broncos ran for 299 yards, Jahmyr Gibbs took the single-game rushing record off himself, and New Orleans, unbeaten and unbothered until kickoff, lost by twenty.

More to the point, this is roughly how the last trophy in this league was won. The Bengals beat the 49ers 48-40 in a Super Bowl in which defense was, by any reasonable definition, optional. Coach Billings is not describing a gimmick. He is describing the defending champion's blueprint, out loud, from the front of the AFC West.

The Chronicle reserves the right to raise this quote again in December, and will do so graciously either way.

Sincere thanks to Coach Billings for reopening this column — Saints head coach Lance Darling christened it in Issue 1 and it had sat empty for three weeks since. Press Row belongs to all 32, wit not venom as always, and it runs with your name on it. Issue 5 has room.

Transaction Wire & Injury Report

The column asked and the clubs answered. For two issues the Chronicle has reported that trades were happening without being able to tell anyone what moved, because the league wire logs an approval and nothing else. Four front offices have now supplied the terms directly, which is exactly what this column asked for last week and precisely how it is supposed to work. Here they are, on the record.

Giants and Patriots. New England sends free safety Enrique Torres to New York; the Giants send running back Rhamondre Stevenson to New England. That is a 21-year-old rookie safety going one way and a 30-year-old back going the other, and both sides can explain it. New York has Cam Skattebo running for 475 yards and did not need Stevenson; it needed a secondary that had just watched Patrick Mahomes throw four interceptions and lose. New England is 2-2, has thrown for 361 yards in a three-point defeat, and has been asking Breece Hall and Donovan Edwards to carry an offense that averages 91 rushing yards a game.

Texans and Vikings. Houston sends tight end Hunter Henry to Minnesota; the Vikings send defensive tackle Austin Winslow to Houston. The Chronicle owes a correction here: this is the deal reported in Issue 3 as a Houston-Minnesota trade of unknown contents, and Henry had already caught six passes for the Vikings by the time that issue went to press. The desk had the trade and the box score in the same week and did not connect them. Winslow is 23 and in his second year; Henry is 33 and in his twelfth. Minnesota, at 0-4, traded youth on the defensive line for a veteran target, which is a curious direction for a team in its position — though the Vikings have now held two straight opponents under 275 yards, so somebody there knows what they are doing.

Zach Sieler, DT, Dolphins — a long absence. The second Miami defensive tackle to go down in as many weeks, after Bobby Brown III. A 3-1 team that just gave up 428 yards to Buffalo is now thin at the one position it could least afford to be.

Emery Jones Jr., LT, Eagles — broken collarbone, roughly six weeks. Philadelphia loses its left tackle in the same week its quarterback attempted four passes. The Chronicle will resist the obvious joke and note only that the timing is unkind.

Still unpublished: a Bills-Vikings trade approved on the 30th, and the two Houston-Las Vegas deals from Week 3. A proposed Bills-Steelers trade was rejected. The Chronicle's offer stands for all of them — send the terms and they run.

Buffalo's business is the more interesting question. The Bills are 1-3 having out-played three opponents, they have now made one trade with Minnesota and had another turned down by Pittsburgh, and they are the only team in the league moving with any urgency in Week 4. Whatever it is, it is not panic — it is a front office that has looked at the same box scores everyone else has and concluded the record is lying.

The injury board grew by one, on net. Eight rostered players are out across the league.

Off the board: Patriots defensive tackle Jordan Davis is back. Otherwise unchanged — Eagles edge Jalon Walker, Raiders right tackle Brennan Poole, Patriots safety Cam Beasley, Dolphins tackle Bobby Brown III, 49ers center John Michael Schmitz Jr and Jaguars right tackle Matt Feldman are all still out. Miami and Philadelphia carry two apiece; nobody else carries more than one.

Rookie Watch

The story of this rookie class stopped being the quarterbacks on Sunday and became the running backs, at least for a week.

Offensive Rookie of the Year lean: this is now a real race. Warren Davis is 4-0 with nine touchdowns and the best team, but Brandon Hart has 474 rushing yards and the single loudest afternoon any rookie has had, and Jabari Howard is at 411 and six scores. The Chronicle holds with Davis on the strength of the position and the record, narrowly, and expects to be arguing about it in December.

Defensive Rookie of the Year lean: Andres Sanchez still, on three interceptions, though he has not added one since Week 2 and the category is wide open.

From the Archives

Week 16, 2027. Denver had already sorted out its season and Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 248 yards and three touchdowns, caught one more, and set a single-game rushing record that looked unbreakable for the simple reason that nobody else had come within sixty yards of it. The Chronicle wrote at the time that a back would need a career afternoon and a defense having a genuinely bad day to get there.

It took eighteen months, and it took the same man. Gibbs's 259 on Sunday came on sixteen carries — the 2027 record needed twenty-two — and the 79-yard run in the middle of it was longer than anything in the original. He is the first player in this league to hold a record, break it himself, and do it more efficiently the second time.

The footnote the Chronicle owes the archive: the 2027 entry was logged as "Jahymir Gibbs," a misspelling that has sat in the record book since the backfill and which nobody — including this desk — caught until his name had to be typed a second time. It has been corrected. The record book is only as good as the people keeping it, and this week the people keeping it were caught not reading their own work.

Upcoming Week Preview — Week 5

★ Game of the Week — Packers at Texans

The best defense in the league goes to Houston to play the best running back nobody is talking about. Green Bay is 4-0 and plus-100 and has allowed 47 points in four games. Houston is 3-1 and just lost a game in which its defense forced five turnovers and its passing game produced 48 yards, which is a problem the Packers are uniquely built to exploit. Bijan Robinson has 755 scrimmage yards against a front with Nick Bosa, Micah Parsons and Will Anderson Jr. in it. If Houston can run on this team, the Chronicle will have to rewrite what it thinks about both of them.

Jenna's pick: Packers
Commanders at GiantsPick: Commanders

Washington is 4-0 and has allowed 52 points. New York is 2-2 with the best differential of any .500 team and just threw four interceptions. Anthony Richardson Sr. has ten touchdown passes and none the other way.

49ers at SeahawksPick: 49ers

San Francisco is 4-0 with 173 points. Seattle is 0-4 and has been outscored by 87. On paper the worst mismatch of the week; Seattle has covered nothing all season and keeps producing 300-yard passing games.

Buccaneers at BroncosPick: Broncos

Tampa Bay just won its first game on a pick-six. Denver has the rushing record holder and 151 points. Jaire Alexander against a Broncos offense that has thrown two interceptions all season.

Eagles at PanthersPick: Panthers

Philadelphia won by 17 with 140 total yards. Carolina ran for 263. Something in this game has to give, and it is probably the Eagles' passing game or Carolina's turnover luck.

Chargers at SaintsPick: Chargers

Two 3-1-ish teams heading opposite directions. Shane Dressler has ten touchdown passes and two interceptions; New Orleans just lost by 20 in Denver.

Cowboys at VikingsPick: Cowboys

Dallas converted eight of ten third downs last week. Minnesota is 0-4 but held Jacksonville to 272 yards and finally stopped throwing interceptions.

Bills at PatriotsPick: Bills

Both 1-3 and 2-2 respectively and both far better than that. Josh Allen and Drake Maye have combined for 2,222 passing yards and four losses.

Dolphins at BrownsPick: Dolphins

Miami is 3-1 and just won a shootout. Cleveland is 1-3 and just won a rock fight. Two teams that have found completely opposite formulas.

Titans at JaguarsPick: Jaguars

The AFC South's other game. Jacksonville is 3-1, Tennessee is 2-2, and Travis Etienne Jr. just had a three-touchdown afternoon.

Steelers at BengalsPick: Bengals

Cincinnati is 4-0 having survived a five-turnover afternoon. Pittsburgh has 60 points in four games and a defense that keeps showing up anyway.

Falcons at RamsPick: Rams

Two 1-3 and 1-2-1 teams with real rosters and disastrous turnover columns. Saquon Barkley against Tevan Jett is worth the price.

Raiders at ChiefsPick: Chiefs

Las Vegas is 0-4 but just scored 32 and broke an 87-yard touchdown run. Kansas City just put up 44 and found Derrick Henry again.

Lions at CardinalsPick: Cardinals

Detroit just scored seven. Arizona just scored 41 and lost. C.J. Stroud has twelve interceptions and needs this one badly.

Colts at BearsPick: Bears

Indianapolis gave the ball away six times. Chicago took it away four. Somebody is going to have a very long afternoon.

Jets at RavensPick: Jets

New York finally won. Baltimore is 0-4 and lost by two to a team that gained 238 yards. This is the most desperate game on the board.

Jenna's Picks — Season Record: 44-17-1 (72.1%)

Eleven right, three wrong in Week 4. The Bears beating the Giants was the pick this column openly worried about and made anyway; Tampa Bay over the Rams and the Jets over New England were the two the desk simply got wrong. Sixteen games this week, all of them still to be played.

Fan Mailbag

The mailbag has a real letter. After three issues of this desk asking itself questions, somebody wrote in, and the question is better than anything the Chronicle invented. It leads the column, where it belongs. The three that follow are still desk-generated, and the Chronicle looks forward to retiring that sentence entirely.

From the mailbag's first letter: "Which team is one trade away from becoming a real championship contender, and what position should it target?"
Jenna: Houston, and a wide receiver, and it is not particularly close. The Texans are 3-1. Their only defeat came by seven in Cincinnati, in a game where their defense forced five turnovers — Milton Williams two forced fumbles, YaYa Diaby a sack and a strip and a recovery, Tre'von Moehrig an interception and a fumble recovery — and they lost anyway, because the Houston passing game produced 48 yards. Forty-eight. Quintin Warner went 8-of-12 for 65 yards and the Texans still nearly won, which tells you exactly how good the other two-thirds of this team are. Bijan Robinson has 755 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns and is currently running into defenses that have no reason on earth to respect anything else. One receiver who commands a safety — one — and Houston is a different football team, because right now the only coverage anyone plays them in is the one designed to strangle a running back. And the Texans will deal: they have already made three trades this season, more than anybody. Runner-up, and it is a real one: Denver, edge rusher. The Broncos are 4-0 with 151 points and a rookie quarterback playing better than his draft slot, and they have allowed 104 points — the most of any unbeaten team. They did not sack Baker Mayfield once while he threw five touchdown passes at them. Chop Robinson got home against New Orleans and that is the whole highlight reel. Denver can outscore anybody in October. Which brings us back to Press Row, where the Broncos' head coach has already read this advice and publicly declined it. The Chronicle notes for the record that he is 4-0 and this column is not. Honorable mention to Miami, which needs an interior defensive lineman more urgently than anyone needs anything, having lost Zach Sieler and Bobby Brown III in consecutive weeks while sitting at 3-1. And two teams need nothing: Green Bay is plus-100 and Washington has allowed 52 points, and if either of them makes a trade it will be out of boredom.
From a Bills fan who is past frustration and into science: "We out-gained Miami, we didn't turn it over once, Josh Allen went 27-of-32 for 341 with no picks, and we're 1-3. Explain that."
Jenna: The Chronicle has looked and there is a real answer, which is somehow worse than there not being one. Buffalo has been beaten in the red zone in all three losses. Against Miami the Bills took five trips inside the twenty and scored one touchdown; the Dolphins took five and scored four. Against Arizona it was six trips and two touchdowns. That is not luck and it is not Josh Allen, who has nine touchdowns, two interceptions and 1,103 yards. It is a team that moves the ball beautifully for seventy yards and then has no idea what it wants to be for the last twenty. The good news is that red-zone offense is the most fixable thing in football and Buffalo has the personnel — Amon-Ra St. Brown just caught nine for 144 and two scores, and Trey Benson broke a 73-yard touchdown. The front office clearly agrees something needs solving; they made a trade and tried to make another. New England is next and the Chronicle has the Bills.
From a Colts fan who watched all six: "Six turnovers. Six. Against a team that gained 140 yards. How does a professional football team lose like that?"
Jenna: By being the only one of the two who tried to throw. Philadelphia attempted four passes all afternoon and Indianapolis attempted thirty-three, and when a quarterback is having the day Jalen Milroe had, volume is the enemy. Four interceptions, two lost fumbles, a 34.7 rating. The Colts out-gained the Eagles by nearly a hundred yards and reached the red zone three times. The uncomfortable part is that this is not new: Milroe now has eleven interceptions in four games, the third-most in the league, and Indianapolis is 1-3 with a roster containing Christian McCaffrey and a defense that has kept every game reachable. The Chronicle's honest read is that this is a quarterback problem and not a team problem, and that Chicago in Week 5 — a defense that just took the ball away four times — is precisely the wrong medicine.
From somebody in Green Bay doing long division: "Plus-100 after four weeks. Is this the best team this league has ever had, or are we getting excited about a soft schedule?"
Jenna: A bit of both, and the honest version is more flattering than you would expect. The schedule has been kind — Dallas in Week 1 before the Cowboys found themselves, the 0-4 Vikings, a Bears team that had not won, and a Titans side missing its best afternoon — and 47 points allowed against that slate is not the same as 47 points allowed against Denver and San Francisco. But look at how they are winning. Green Bay went 0-for-5 on third down against Tennessee and won by 24. Jayden Daniels threw thirteen passes and had a perfect rating. Maddux Trujillo is 8-for-8. Nick Bosa has 7.5 sacks. That is a team that does not need the ball to beat you, and those are the teams that survive January. The 2027 Packers won sixteen games and did not win the trophy, which is the part Green Bay will not want to hear and the part the Chronicle is obliged to print. Houston on Sunday is the first real test. Watch that one.

League Poll

The Issue 3 poll asked which of the eight unbeaten teams would miss the playoffs, and twelve ballots produced a landslide and an immediate partial verdict. New Orleans took seven votes (58%). Denver took three (25%). Arizona took two (17%). The Bengals, Texans, Commanders, Packers and 49ers did not draw a single vote between them. Week 4 then produced a partial verdict that the Chronicle would ask everyone to take lightly. New Orleans lost by twenty in Denver and Arizona lost by four in San Francisco, which means nine of the twelve ballots landed on a team beaten within a week of the question being asked. That proves very little. The Saints are 3-1 with Lamar Jackson at eleven touchdown passes and one interception all season. The Cardinals are 3-1 and lost by four on the road to the highest-scoring team in football while a rookie back ran for 155 yards. Both of those clubs are going to be in this conversation in January, and this poll asked about seeding rather than about one Sunday. Worth noting on the other side: the five teams nobody named at all — Cincinnati, Houston, Washington, Green Bay and San Francisco — went 4-1 on the week. The league's collective read on who is real is holding up nicely.

This week's poll:

Week 4 was the best Sunday this league has produced, and not by a small margin. A running back broke a record that already belonged to him. A rookie ran for 243 yards. A 75-overall defensive tackle out-scored his own team's passing game. And four clubs that had not won a game all season won one on the same afternoon. So the Chronicle is asking the happiest question it has asked yet: which of it are you still thinking about? Jahmyr Gibbs taking the rushing record off himself with 259 in Denver? Brandon Hart going for 243 as a rookie in Carolina's win? Mekhi Wingo's one-man afternoon — sack, forced fumble, recovery, touchdown — in a game Philadelphia won with 140 total yards? Derrick Henry's 86-yard run and a Kansas City side that has now won two straight? Cam Ward's five touchdown passes in a 45-41 classic? Or the Bears, Browns, Jets and Buccaneers all getting their first win of the season on the very same day? There is no wrong answer in that list. Results in Issue 5.

Four weeks down, thirteen to go. A running back broke his own record and did it on six fewer carries. Four winless teams found a win on the same afternoon and four others did not. A team won by seventeen points with nineteen passing yards. Seven defenders scored. Green Bay is plus-100 and Washington has allowed 52 points, and the two of them have played nobody who will admit to being any good.

A quarter of the final season on this game is gone. The Chronicle would like to point out that at this stage last year the Packers were also unbeaten, the eventual champion had already lost, and nobody had heard of Kaiir Elam. Enjoy the standings. Do not trust them.

And after three weeks of asking: Press Row has a quote in it again and the mailbag has its first genuine letter. The Chronicle is delighted and would like more of both. Both columns belong to all 32, both run with your name on them, and the desk has now demonstrated it will print whatever you send — including a line about defense being optional, which the standings suggest is not even a joke.

Until next week, the Chronicle stands with all 32.
— Jenna Tulls, Senior HFL Correspondent